Predictive Analytics Applied to Nutrient Concentrations and Chlorophyll in Otter Lake

Community Science/Research
Oral Presentation

Prepared by K. Tucker
Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, 44 Circle Dr., Edwardsville, IL, 62026, United States


Contact Information: [email protected]; 618-650-5868

ABSTRACT

Contamination of water supplies originates from various sources, including agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities. A significant concern is the presence of emerging contaminants—a diverse group of compounds that infiltrate freshwater systems, posing risks to both human and environmental health. These contaminants include naturally occurring compounds, such as those released by native species. Among them, algal toxins have become a growing global issue, as harmful algal blooms (HABs) continue to contaminate lakes, ponds, rivers, and coastal waters. This phenomenon is driven by rising water temperatures and increased nutrient loads from agricultural runoff. HABs pose serious ecological and public health risks, poisoning fish, contaminating shellfish, and even causing illness or death in animals and humans.

To better understand these threats, field data were collected from 34 sites on Otter Lake near Carlinville, IL, including five depth-specific locations. In situ measurements were taken for pH, relative dissolved oxygen (RDO), turbidity, conductivity, and temperature. This study examines the correlation between nutrient levels—nitrate/nitrite, ammonia, total Kjeldahl phosphorus (TKP), and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN)—and chlorophyll concentrations. Water samples underwent filtration, acid digestion extraction, and quantification via flow injection analysis.

The overarching goal of this research is to improve the detection and prediction of HABs. Here, we present the analytical results from 2021 to 2023, along with statistical analyses that have contributed to reducing analytical variability and improving predictive accuracy.